The 21st century is truly an urban century. More than ever before, cities and urban areas play a vital role within Europe and other parts of the world. Currently, 75% of all Europeans live in a city or in an urban environment. More than 50% of the world population now lives in urban areas. In 2050, more than two thirds of the world population will be urban. Moreover, cities are the centre of socio-economic development in Europe.
Urban areas are also the areas where the world’s major problems and challenges are felt the earliest and the hardest. One only has to think of the effects of today’s two major problems: the economic recession and climate change. However, cities can also play a vital role in the solution to these problems and meeting these challenges. In Europe, but equally so in rising economies such as China, urban planners and city managers adopt ‘climate neutral’ or ‘low carbon’ approaches in order to combat the negative effects of climate change. In Adapting Cities to Climate Change, published earlier this year, Jane Bicknell argues that ‘Urban centres are key players both in the generation of greenhouse gases and in strategies to reduce this generation’. Cities are indeed the engine of the European economy and the harbour for people with differing educational and ethnic backgrounds. But they are also places where environmental issues become most manifest. Cities are the prime location where most major challenges facing Europe and the rest of the world need to be addressed adequately.
A focus on long-term trends is now more important than ever. Challenging times of economic recession and financial insecurity may incite cities to focus on short-term problems. But the real challenges require a long-term solution. If we lose this perspective, we will lay a heavy burden on future generations.
Climate change
Cities are confronted with challenges that are both complex and layered: complex because most challenges are intertwined and involve different topics and issues; layered because solutions cannot be forged by cities alone. Three fundamental trends lie at the basis of all change in cities: climate change, demographic change and globalisation. These trends do not work in isolation, but mutually influence one another; they need a multi-level and comprehensive approach. However, as cities play such a vital role in meeting these challenges, city-centred solutions are more crucial than ever.
Let us first focus on the individual trends and their individual solutions before looking at them in a more comprehensive way. Climate change and the energy debate have dominated the public debate for several years. Fatih Birol, Chief Economist of the Paris-based International Energy Agency, argues: ‘Humanity’s future, to say nothing of its prosperity, will depend on how the world tackles two central energy challenges: securing reliable supplies of affordable energy, and switching to efficient low-carbon energy.’
As centres of economic and social activity, cities play a big role in the causes – 80% of all energy consumption is concentrated in cities and 80% of CO² emissions are due to urban activities. Since most cities are situated at strategic locations along rivers, flood plains or near the sea, they are most vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change. Densely populated areas can be endangered by heatwaves, droughts, flash flooding, hurricanes, and heavy rainfall, sometimes with devastating results. The New Orleans situation (Hurricane Katrina in 2005) comes to mind. The heavy rainfalls in Istanbul are a more recent example of the effects of climate change. Densely populated low elevation coastal zones such as Bangladesh and the Netherlands need to seriously focus on protecting themselves against the rising sea level.
Moving forward, the key to resolving the challenges that climate change poses to our society also lies in the city. Cities can adapt to the fierce threats of climate change, for instance by building dykes, flood-resistant houses and by implementing innovative techniques to arm themselves against the negative effects of climate change. Next to short-term solutions, cities also are the ultimate testing ground for long-term solutions that mitigate the effects of climate change. More and more, cities are implementing green policies through promoting the construction of zero-carbon houses and buildings, green public procurement aimed at creating markets for clean technology. Promoting and stimulating research into greener mobility will significantly reduce the pressure on the environment. Also, upgrading the existing housing stock would decrease our energy consumption by more than 20% over the next 10 years – and while doing so, also lower utility bills for residents. In our urban age, cities become resilient through adaption and mitigation.
Not only does the switch to greener policy have positive effects on the environment in the long term, it is also economically a sound policy, as the costs for addressing climate change right now are 1% of our GDP annually. In the future, the cost for inaction will be five to 20% of our GDP. A recent report of the European Environmental Agency (EEA) stated that the economic costs of coastal flooding are estimated at €12 to €18bn per year in Europe by 2080 (EEA Report No 4/2008). A swift response right now could significantly reduce these costs to €1bn annually. In The Impacts and Costs of Climate Change (2005), Paul Watkiss already argued that ‘Planning for climate change adaptation should begin as soon as possible because anticipatory and precautionary adaptation is more effective and less costly than forced, last-minute, emergency adaptation or retrofitting’. More recently, Frank Ackerman and Elizabeth A. Stanton elaborated on the cost of inactivity in 2008’s The Cost of Climate Change. For the USA alone, the costs for repairing the damage resulting from climate change will increase from $271bn in 2025 to $506bn in 2050 and $961bn in 2075 and ultimately $1,873bn in 2100. In the long run, the best choice economically is to start a greener policy of adaptation and mitigation now. All three of the mentioned studies advocate a strong focus on education, research and innovation in order to combat climate change.
Demographic shifts
A demographic trend that will help combat climate change is the shrinking population. However, this shrinking population poses its own threats to our society. An increasing proportion of elderly people who need to be supported by a shrinking working population puts pressure on our society as it is shaped today. The birth rate is far below the replacement figure of 2.1 births per couple, ranging from 1.2 in Eastern Europe and Italy to 2.0 in Ireland. These effects are becoming tangible: an ageing population, a pensions crisis, later retirement, changes in work patterns, shrinking cities and impossible health care costs.
What does this mean for European cities? Certain regions and cities will soon face – or are already facing – difficulties in supplying essential goods and services to their inhabitants, such as health care, urban planning, transport and tourism services. This might result in a downward spiral and marginalisation of particular regions and cities. Some regions and cities will continue to remain strong: the Barcelona region in Spain, Silicon Valley in the USA, the greater Shanghai region and the Randstad region in the Netherlands, to give a few well-known examples. Other regions and cities, like Frankfurt an der Oder and Newcastle upon Tyne will probably shrink. Much of it will depend on long-term attractiveness and the development of a sustainable policy regarding demographic shifts. As Richard Florida described in The Rise of the Creative Class and Who’s your City?, several correlating factors make a city attractive: smart city branding, sound spatial planning, fostering creativity and a strong innovation policy.
For cities to remain attractive, it is crucial to invest in high quality public spaces, culture, public services and public transport. Attractive cities are safe, entertaining, convenient and affordable places to live in. Unlike the past decades, urban living shows a trend that will become stronger in the years ahead. Quality of life becomes one of the defining characteristics shaping people’s and companies’ decisions to settle in a city. In order to ensure a high quality of life, cities need to enhance their productivity. But it will be a tough challenge for Europe to maintain its current level of prosperity. Increasing this level will really be asking too much, especially under the current economic circumstances. As Europe’s population is hardly increasing, cities need to become smarter on the whole. Long-term solutions such as deregulating the internal market, cross-border cooperation, investing in education, capacity building and skills, will provide the best perspective for raising productivity. Immigration of knowledge workers can also play an important role.
Climate change and demographic change require strong leadership within the current economic and financial context. A deteriorating economy causes national governments to adopt a more inward look and focus shifts even more to the short term. Mass redundancies strike citizens with fear, which puts pressure on society and might result in less social cohesion. The economic crisis also tends to shift focus from long-term, financially and environmentally sound solutions to short-term, cheaper solutions which pay no attention to the environment. Tobias Krantz, Swedish minister for higher education and research, also stressed this point in his opening speech during the conference ‘The Knowledge Triangle – Shaping the future of Europe’: ‘When combating the crisis, it’s important not to lose the long-term perspective. Investments in knowledge – education and research – are absolutely vital in building a European economy that will be able to combat both this crisis – and crises to come.’
The way ahead
Sustainable city-centred solutions are the way to go. Cities as the centre of economic production need to actively advocate more sustainable production methods. As centres of mobility, urban areas will have to promote greener ways of transporting people and goods. The challenges are manifold. But so are the opportunities. A policy focused on research, innovation and education is what we need. There are promising examples that will help us find a way out of the current crisis by investing in an innovative, green economy. Every crisis creates new opportunities. This crisis presents new opportunities for green economic growth, for investments in health, education, culture, mobility. This will not be easy but with strong leadership at all governmental levels – local, national and European – and real citizen participation, I am sure we will succeed.
Mart Grisel is the Head of Nicis International and the European Urban Knowledge Network
